Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.016786 0.019044 0.021502 0.024376 0.027646 0.031255 0.035541
2025-03-23 0.013487 0.016647 0.020390 0.025159 0.031082 0.038211 0.047463
2025-03-30 0.011043 0.014424 0.018666 0.024393 0.031942 0.041583 0.054880
2025-04-06 0.009490 0.012980 0.017569 0.024065 0.033056 0.045113 0.062599
2025-04-13 0.008114 0.011545 0.016242 0.023165 0.033161 0.047143 0.068320
2025-04-20 0.007521 0.011093 0.016163 0.023919 0.035554 0.052470 0.079135
2025-04-27 0.006985 0.010644 0.016011 0.024506 0.037705 0.057584 0.090087
2025-05-04 0.006565 0.010311 0.015978 0.025232 0.040089 0.063214 0.102341
2025-05-11 0.005987 0.009666 0.015393 0.025020 0.040947 0.066503 0.111135
2025-05-18 0.005535 0.009174 0.014991 0.025040 0.042147 0.070401 0.121252
2025-05-25 0.005063 0.008600 0.014396 0.024672 0.042639 0.073133 0.129596
2025-06-01 0.004788 0.008328 0.014272 0.025076 0.044467 0.078258 0.142587
2025-06-08 0.004411 0.007854 0.013775 0.024806 0.045123 0.081469 0.152592
2025-06-15 0.004233 0.007716 0.013849 0.025564 0.047707 0.088380 0.170206
2025-06-22 0.003845 0.007160 0.013128 0.024788 0.047359 0.089835 0.177500
2025-06-29 0.003559 0.006768 0.012668 0.024454 0.047804 0.092797 0.188000
2025-07-06 0.003227 0.006257 0.011943 0.023540 0.047023 0.093297 0.193551
2025-07-13 0.003133 0.006198 0.012070 0.024306 0.049651 0.100762 0.214237
2025-07-20 0.003024 0.006101 0.012112 0.024903 0.051981 0.107823 0.234776
2025-07-27 0.002938 0.006040 0.012221 0.025641 0.054668 0.115855 0.258236
2025-08-03 0.002759 0.005773 0.011890 0.025425 0.055294 0.119564 0.272422
2025-08-10 0.002617 0.005573 0.011679 0.025446 0.056431 0.124470 0.289825
2025-08-17 0.002450 0.005305 0.011303 0.025071 0.056653 0.127361 0.302801